Cold Front: Russia’s Geopolitical Gambit Chills COP29 Preparations

As Siberia’s permafrost thaws and wildfires rage, the urgency of addressing climate change has never been clearer. Yet, the global effort faces a stumbling block: the venue for the crucial 2024 climate discussions at COP29 remains undecided, a dilemma sharpened by Russia’s staunch opposition to any European Union country playing host.

The annual Conference of Parties (COP) is more than just a meeting; it’s a global commitment to tackling climate change. However, as COP29 approaches, its traditional journey to different world regions is disrupted. Geopolitical tensions, particularly Russia’s ongoing war with Ukraine, have complicated the host selection, leaving the summit in unprecedented uncertainty.

To understand why the Russian position is so crucial, we have to explore the bureaucratic process behind the COP. 

​​The United Nations rotates the hosting of the COP meetings among its five regional groups: Africa, Asia-Pacific, Eastern Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Western Europe and Others. Each group gets its turn in a system meant to ensure fairness and global representation.

The Eastern European group is slated to host the next conference. Countries within the designated region voluntarily offer to host the conference. It is usually driven by a country’s desire to lead on climate issues or raise its diplomatic profile. After countries have put forward their offers, the regional group decides by consensus. All member countries must agree on the host choice. If there’s opposition, as is the case with Russia, the process stalls. 

This time, Bulgaria volunteered to host COP29 but faced resistance from Russia. Why did the Kremlin decide to do so? It wants to “punish” the EU for its support for Ukraine. 

This deadlock transcends environmental policy, reflecting global power dynamics and underscoring the intricate dance of diplomacy, where a single nation’s stance can sway the course of global climate action.

And the discord extends beyond Russia. Armenia and Azerbaijan have emerged as potential hosts but are expected to veto each other, adding to the impasse.

With the clock ticking, nations contemplate unconventional solutions, like hosting smaller, distributed conferences across Eastern Europe. Should the deadlock persist, the fallback is Bonn, Germany, home to the UN’s climate secretariat. 

While certain projections suggest Russia might reap benefits from a warming climate, such as extended agricultural seasons and newly accessible northern trade routes, the long-term risks—intensified wildfires, permafrost thaw, and biodiversity loss—present a dire scenario. Vladimir Putin’s blatant refusal to promote global dialogue on climate once again underscores his disregard for humanity and its own people.

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Elia Kabanov is a science writer covering the past, present and future of technology (@metkere)

Illustration: Elia Kabanov feat. MidJourney.